life in and around NYC is insane

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

So...politics

The GOP has actually picked Donald Trump.  And the party is literally unraveling as a result.

Bernie won West Virginia yesterday.  That was expected.  The numbers were a bit higher than I thought they'd be, but it's an open primary and I think that, since the  Republicans no longer had a race, they voted for Sanders.

No big deal.  Hillary has 1,716 pledged delegates now and 523 super delegates.  That's 144 short of the nomination. Bernie has 1,430 pledged delegates and 39 super delegates.  She's ahead by 286 pledged delegates and 770 overall delegates. 

It looks like Bernie is going to take his campaign through the primaries in June.  There aren't enough delegates at stake in the next few primaries to put Hillary over the top.  June 7th will be another "Super Tuesday".   Hillary is very likely to win in the two biggest states voting that day, California and New Jersey.  Even if she loses, though, delegates are awarded proportionately, and she will win enough delegates to clinch the nomination on the 7th.   The last primary, DC on the 14th, will be meaningless, but I think Bernie will continue on until the last vote is cast.

So it really looks like Hillary and Trump will face off in the fall.

It's going to be a very interesting election.

Ancient Chinese curse: may you live in interesting times.

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