life in and around NYC is insane

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Indiana wants me...

Today is the Indiana primary. 

Today is Ted Cruz' last stand.  If Ted doesn't pull out a win today, he's done, and the GOP nominee will be [shudder] Donald Trump.  Frankly I don't know who is scarier, Cruz or Trump. 

Today is yet another "Groundhog Day" experience for us Democrats.  You remember the movie, "Groundhog Day", where Bill Murray relives the same day over and over and over? 

In April Hillary Clinton won decisive victories in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Connecticut.  She's now won in every part of the country, she succeeds with almost every demographic that makes up the Democratic Party.  Despite Bernie's ability to attract huge crowds to his rallies and to bring in small donations from large numbers of contributors, he has not been able to translate his popularity into large numbers of votes.

2,383 delegates are required to win the nomination.  There are  4,051  pledged delegates available through primaries and caucuses, and 712 super delegates, who can vote their own conscience.

According to the NY Times, Hillary now has 1,663 pledged delegates.  Bernie has 1,367.   Hillary has 520 super delegates, Bernie has 39.  She leads him 2,183 to 1,406, with only 1,016 delegates remaining in the May and June primaries. 

Since all delegates are awarded proportionally, both candidates will take a share of the remaining delegates in each primary in May and June.

Technically he has not been mathematically eliminated, but it's getting very, very close to that point.  He can't simply win the next few primaries, he has to have serious blow outs, he has to get over 65% of the remaining delegates to close the gap. 

And it doesn't look like he's going to be able to pull off that miracle.  In the three states with the most delegates, Clinton is far ahead.  Clinton is up by about 9 points in Indiana, 10 points in New Jersey and 9 points in California.

And what does Bernie have to say?  I guess it depends on the day. 

One day he's telling us that he'll stay in the race in order to let everyone have their chance to vote, and to amass delegates to give him clout at the convention, so that he can get his policies incorporated into the party platform. 

The next day he's telling his supporters that he's still a viable candidate, he's in it to win it, he plans to make it a contested convention.

And the rest of us just want to tell him to please stop giving his supporters false hope, that it's time to concede gracefully, and that it's time to unify the party to face the bigger enemy:  Donald trump.

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